Cellphone companies are about to barrage consumers with advertising
for the next advance in mobile technology: "4G" access.
The companies are promising faster speeds and the thrill of being
the first on the block to use a new acronym.
But there's less to 4G than meets the eye, and there's little reason
for people to scramble for it, at least for the next few years.
Sprint Nextel is the first carrier to beat the drum for
fourth-generation wireless technology. It's releasing its first 4G
phone, the EVO, this week in the US.
In the fall, Verizon Wireless will be firing up its 4G network in 25
to 30 US cities, and probably will make a big deal of that. A smaller
provider, MetroPCS Communications, is scheduled to introduce its first
4G phone around the same time.
So what is 4G?
Broadly speaking, it's a new way to use the airwaves, designed from
the start for the transmission of data rather than phone calls. To do
that, it borrows aspects of the latest generation of Wi-Fi, the
short-range wireless technology.
For consumers, 4G means, in the ideal case, faster access to data.
For instance, streaming video might work better, with less stuttering
and higher resolution. Videoconferencing is difficult on 3G and might
work better on 4G. Multiplayer video games may benefit too.
Other than that, it's difficult to point to completely new uses for
4G phones - things they can do that 3G phones can't.
Instead, the upgrade to 4G is more likely to enhance the things you
can already do with 3G, said Matt Carter, president of Sprint's 4G
division.
"View it as the difference between watching regular TV and
high-definition TV," Carter said. "Once you've experienced
high-definition TV it's hard to go back to standard TV. It's the same
sort of thing here."
So the improvement from 3G to 4G is not as dramatic as the step from
2G to 3G, which for the first time made real web browsing, video and
music downloads practical on phones. The introduction of 3G started in
earnest about five years ago, but it isn't complete - AT&T and
T-Mobile USA still have little rural 3G coverage in the US, for
instance.
There's an important caveat to the claim that 4G will be faster, as
well. It will definitely be faster than the 3G networks of Sprint and
Verizon Wireless - about four times faster, initially. But the other two
national carriers, AT&T and T-Mobile, are upgrading their 3G
networks to offer data-transfer speeds that will actually be higher than
the speeds 4G networks will reach this year or next.
That means that rather than focusing on real speeds, Sprint and
Verizon will try to frame their marketing around the "4G" term, said Dan
Hays, who focuses on telecommunications at management consulting firm
PRTM.
"It's a terrible story from a consumer standpoint, because it's
tremendously confusing," he said.
AT&T and T-Mobile are able to upgrade their 3G networks because
they use a different 3G technology than Verizon and Sprint, which have
maxed out their 3G speeds. Taking the step to 4G is natural for Verizon
and Sprint, especially because they have new chunks of the radio
spectrum that they want to take advantage of.
The fact that Verizon Wireless and Sprint are adding fresh spectrum
may be more important than the fact that they are using it for 4G
service. No matter if used for 4G or 3G, new spectrum means the
companies can accommodate more data-hungry devices such as smart phones.
AT&T's network is already staggering under data congestion
caused by the iPhone in New York and San Francisco. The carrier has made
relieving the congestion a top priority this year, and its 3G upgrades
are part of that process.
(As an aside, there is a lot of talk of a coming "iPhone 4G." Apple
will most likely release the fourth generation of the iPhone for
AT&T's network this summer, but it's virtually certain that it will
not be able to use a 4G wireless network. It likely won't be called the
"iPhone 4G" either.)
There's another, more subtle benefit to 4G. While it's not always
faster than the best 3G when it comes to helping you download a big file
in less time, it is definitely faster in the sense that it takes less
time to initiate the flow of data to you. What that means is that 4G is
faster for quick back-and-forth communications.
You wouldn't notice this when surfing the web or doing e-mail: We're
talking delays of 0.03 second rather than 0.15 second. But it could
mean that 4G will work better for multiplayer gaming, where split-second
timing is important. Even phone calls could benefit from shorter audio
delays.
Sprint and Verizon are taking different routes in 4G. Sprint owns a
majority of Clearwire, which is building a network using WiMax
technology. Once seen as very promising, WiMax looks set to be a niche
technology, and WiMax devices like the Sprint EVO phone won't be able to
use networks built using the dominant 4G standard, called LTE, for Long
Term Evolution.
Verizon and MetroPCS plan to use LTE, as does AT&T, starting
next year. T-Mobile says it will probably use LTE eventually. Even
Sprint hasn't ruled out using LTE eventually, because the technology has
huge momentum.
In five years or so, many phones are likely to have 4G capabilities,
but they'll complement it with 3G. Rather than a sudden revolution,
consumers are likely to experience a gradual transition to the new
technology, with increasing speeds. But for now, 4G is no magic bullet.
"It's an important thing for the industry," said Bill Davidson,
senior vice president of marketing and investor relations at wireless
technology developer Qualcomm "It's absolutely needed. . .. But I just
think some of this has gotten a bit ahead of itself in terms of
expectations for consumers."
